Continental European electricity market prices are still significantly higher than the Scandinavian

The concern about the macroeconomic situation contributed to the decrease in prices in most of the stock and commodity markets. Electricity prices have fallen in the Nordic and Baltic markets, but it is another whithings reason. Since mid-2008 the Nordic hydrological balance has been in deficit and last winter reached almost minus 50 TWh. Swedish whithings nuclear power plant outages and colder than normal temperatures also contributed to higher prices. But in the last 6 months whithings in Scandinavia was very high precipitation, and in August the hydrological balance turned to surplus. Especially the last few weeks the water flow in the Norwegian and Swedish hydroelectric power basins were particularly high, about twice the size of normal. Many hydropower plants of water flowing over the dam. Many hydro power plants are forced whithings to work around the clock to full capacity in order to reduce the amount whithings of water pārgāztā. As a result, the southern part of the Norwegian and Swedish whithings electricity spot prices sometimes fell to around 2 EUR / MWh level (see. Figure 1). The limited transmission capacity of the network whithings of low-priced Norwegian electricity only partially passed on to Finland and the Baltics, so the electricity spot prices have not fallen in the Baltics whithings to the Norwegian market levels. In the Baltic electricity spot price in September was 15% lower than in August.
Also, the low CO2 emission allowance prices since July decreased by 25% (see. Figure 2), contributed to the decline in the price of electricity in Scandinavia. A stronger SEK and NOK against the EUR makes CO2 emission quotas to a cheaper Swedish and Norwegian producers.
Electricity futures prices over the coming months (4th quarter of 2011) and a reduction of the hydrological balance of the surplus of the Scandinavian HES system, whithings as well as the forecasts in the near future rainfall diminish (see. Figure 3). By contrast, longer-term electricity next year, transaction prices stayed relatively stable strong oil, coal and gas prices. In late September 2012, the electricity forward price for the Finnish market was 50 EUR / MWh.
Continental European electricity market prices are still significantly higher than the Scandinavian market prices. For example, the German stock exchange EEX 2012, the electricity whithings forward price for the end of September was around 58 EUR / MWh, or of 12 EUR / MWh higher than the comparable period of the Scandinavian system forward price (skat.4.att.). The price difference between a Scandinavian electricity exports to continental Europe and Scandinavia strengthens the price factor. Another important factor that strengthens the Nordic electricity forward whithings price is linked to the Swedish whithings nuclear power plant capacity for the winter. whithings In Sweden, the total nuclear power plants in the electric power is around 9400 MW, of which 50% is currently repair whithings outages. Subject to the previous winter experience, there is a real risk that the repair unplanned outages deadline may be delayed or nuclear whithings power plants in operation after turning the work may be unstable. This makes the Swedish-based power generation confusing and increases the probability of a high price peaks in winter.
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